UEFA Nations League Predictions & Betting Tips – Monday, 5 October 2026

France against Belgium is the obvious headline on Monday, but it is not necessarily the easiest game to call. Italy have a much cleaner opportunity against a Türkiye side they beat heavily last month, while Sweden and Montenegro also have form on their side.

Here are our UEFA Nations League predictions for 5 October 2026.

France vs Belgium

France won the first meeting 1-0, but I wouldn’t rush into backing them at short odds for the return.

Belgium are missing Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans through suspension, which is a significant loss in midfield. France have an absence of their own with Dayot Upamecano suspended.

France still look the stronger side, just not enough for me to force the straight win.

Pick: France Draw No Bet

Italy vs Türkiye

This is much easier to like.

Italy beat Türkiye 4-1 in September, and Türkiye followed that by losing 3-0 to Belgium. It wasn’t simply one bad night — they have struggled badly against the stronger teams in this group.

Italy also remain unbeaten across the five H2Hs listed by FotMob.

Pick: Italy to Win

Northern Ireland vs Georgia

Georgia haven’t scored in their three Nations League matches in the recent sequence. That’s the key number here.

Northern Ireland already beat them 1-0 away and have since kept clean sheets against Hungary and Ukraine. Another fairly controlled game would be no surprise.

Pick: Under 3.5 Goals

Ukraine vs Hungary

Ukraine’s 3-0 defeat to Northern Ireland looks ugly, especially after three straight wins without conceding.

Hungary won’t make this easy either. They just beat Georgia 1-0, and Ukraine only managed a 1-0 victory when these sides met previously.

I don’t see much value in choosing a winner.

Pick: Under 3.5 Goals

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Poland

Poland just beat Romania 6-0, so the obvious reaction is to back them again. I’m not convinced that’s the right play here.

Bosnia are unbeaten in their three Nations League games in this run and already held Poland to a 0-0 draw. Poland will also be without the suspended Robert Lewandowski.

This should be a very different game from that Romania rout.

Pick: Under 3.5 Goals

Romania vs Sweden

Romania have conceded 12 goals in three Nations League matches: two against Sweden, four against Bosnia and six against Poland.

That’s difficult to overlook.

Sweden won the reverse fixture 2-1 and have also beaten Poland during this campaign. I’d rather have the draw covered away from home, but Sweden are clearly the side I trust more.

Pick: Sweden Draw No Bet

Cyprus vs Latvia

The first meeting finished 0-0. Neither side gives me much reason to expect the return to suddenly open up.

Cyprus did beat Armenia 2-0 last time out, while Latvia lost 2-1 against Montenegro. Still, this is one where I’d leave the match winner alone.

Pick: Under 3.5 Goals

Montenegro vs Armenia

Montenegro have quietly put together a good run: three straight Nations League wins, including a 3-2 victory away to Armenia.

Armenia then lost 2-0 in Cyprus, while Montenegro went on to beat Latvia. Adam Marušić being unavailable is worth noting, but it doesn’t change my preference here.

Pick: Montenegro Draw No Bet

Best Nations League Picks – 5 October 2026

Match	Pick
France vs Belgium	France DNB
Italy vs Türkiye	Italy to Win
Northern Ireland vs Georgia	Under 3.5 Goals
Ukraine vs Hungary	Under 3.5 Goals
Bosnia vs Poland	Under 3.5 Goals
Romania vs Sweden	Sweden DNB
Cyprus vs Latvia	Under 3.5 Goals
Montenegro vs Armenia	Montenegro DNB

If I had to narrow Monday’s card down, Italy to Win would be my first choice. Sweden DNB and Montenegro DNB are the other two I like most.

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